Indonesia's Rice Belt Is Drying Out
An intensifying El Niño is pushing large parts of Indonesia into severe drought, and the consequences for food production are already measurable. Rice output fell for three consecutive months between March and May 2026, with April alone recording a decline of more than 800,000 tonnes compared to the same month in 2025, according to Statistics Indonesia (BPS). The situation is expected to worsen through the second half of the year.
Those figures were first reported by The Jakarta Post, drawing on data from government agencies and interviews with agricultural researchers.
Where the Damage Is Concentrated
The Indonesian Farmers Union (SPI), which represents more than a million farmers across the archipelago, says water shortages have hit farming communities across Java, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, and parts of Sumatra. The union's agroecology department head, Kusnan, told The Jakarta Post that the April-to-July growing season, which normally receives just enough rainfall to sustain rice cultivation, has instead been marked by failed crops, pest outbreaks, and drained irrigation channels.
Specific damage figures illustrate the scale. In Majalengka, West Java, at least 72 hectares of rice fields in Panyingkiran village have already been destroyed by drought. The Bekasi administration has warned that up to 1,500 hectares could follow. Farmers across 15 subdistricts in Tangerang, Banten, are also at risk. In East Java, 14 regencies have declared drought emergencies as residents struggle to find reliable water. The Ciliwung River, which runs from Bogor to Jakarta, has dried up in sections, disrupting the Katulampa dam's irrigation network.
What Researchers Are Warning
Aris Pramudia, a climate and agricultural researcher at the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), has said that El Niño years historically trigger nationwide drops in food production, and that 2026's sharpest decline is projected for the second half of the year, compounded by a delayed rainy season. Dwi Andreas Santosa, a professor at Bogor Agricultural University (IPB), added that widespread crop failures and water crises will almost certainly pull annual rice production below 2025 levels.
The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) reported that as of late July, more than two-thirds of Indonesia had entered the dry season, with below-normal rainfall expected across most regions for the remainder of 2026.
The Agriculture Ministry, which did not respond to The Jakarta Post's request for comment, has separately stated that it is expanding irrigation pump use and that national rice reserves remain at a historically high level, sufficient to meet demand into next year.
Why It Matters for Hosts
Independent operators running guesthouses, homestays, or agritourism experiences in affected rural areas, particularly across Java and the Nusa Tenggaras, should prepare for two practical pressures. First, local food costs are likely to rise as rice and corn supplies tighten; reviewing menu sourcing and adjusting food budgets now is more prudent than waiting for price spikes. Second, water availability at properties in drought-declared regencies may become unreliable. Hosts who have not already audited their water storage capacity and backup supply options should do so before the peak travel season. Communicating transparently with guests about any water-conservation measures in place is also good practice and tends to be well received by independent travelers.
Details in this post draw on reporting by Gembong Hanung and Wahyoe Boediwardhana, first published by The Jakarta Post on July 28, 2026, and syndicated by the Asia News Network.
First reported by Jakarta Travel.